Recent history shows how first Budgets can define the political era. Labour’s 1984 Budget redrew the nation’s economic model to deal with the legacy of decades of borrowing. Ruth Richardson’s 1991 “Mother of All Budgets” upped the dose of savage cuts to deal with still rampant fiscal deficit. The Helen Clark’s fifth Labour Government used its first Budget to signal redistribution of wealth and its ‘closing the gaps’ doctrine.

Why are first time Budgets so critical? Firstly, because politicians and voters want them to be critical. And secondly, because sometimes events conspire to place new Governments into power at times of crisis.

Politicians and voters are usually looking for paradigm-setting first Budgets. Politicians want to clearly articulate a “business plan” for the nation – a vision and set of activities for how the nation will be. I f the vision is well articulated, these sorts of Budgets usually empower a new Government.

Spectacular first budgets can occur when in-coming Governments are convinced they are facing extraordinary times requiring extraordinary Budgetary responses. These can either destroy or build and define a new era of Government.

Regardless of whether it is a time of crisis or renewal, first Budgets are important because;

1. Politicians enter Parliament to make the world behave the way they think it should. Budgets – taxing and spending – are how they entice those desired behaviours to happen. Politicians do not miss their first big chance to make changes.

2. The three year term of government drives a cycle where the first year is for change, the second year for implementing, and the third year for calming everybody down before the election.

3. Politics is how nations and communities define themselves and regulate behaviour. Budgets provide a good platform for communication about this, as well as actual changes to government services. After electing its representatives, the public wants easy-to-read signals about what thinking and behaviour is in the ascendency. The Government wants to dispense signals that encourage people to think and act in ways it believes are best for the nation.

So how will voters and history judge this first Budget of the National Government?

The economic crisis facing National is similar to those crises facing the Coalition Government in 1931 and the Labour Government in 1957.

The Coalition’s response was a muddling-through approach of piecemeal activity and debt-driven balanced-budgets which sounds eerily like John Key’s ‘rolling maul’. As the recession deepened, the Coalition was blamed for not responding sufficiently and lost the next election.

The Labour Government’s response to a balance of payments crisis was the infamous 1958 “Black Budget” that drastically increased taxes and consequently kept them to one term.

The lesson of the Black Budget is that budgetary pain causes voter reaction. This lesson possibly resonates most strongly with John Key.

The Coalition lesson is that Budget inaction may not stem economic failure, and that leads to negative voter reaction. This lesson is likely to resonate with Bill English.

Right now you, other voters, and the economic conditions, will be deciding our joint verdict on which route National has taken. Is this Budget, and this Government, memorable or forgettable?