Dairy Made
Economists and jargon go hand in hand, and Dr Nana is no exception. He uses economics-speak, but at least in the next breath retracts it.
“We have got to have a strategy. Gosh, I hate that word: ‘strategy’ - a ‘strategy’, a ‘framework’, call it what you like.”
When we first meet he is politely distant, with that faint air of academia. But as conversation drifts towards economics and policy his passion is obvious – he is animated, vivid and engaging.
He believes economists knew about sustainability even before it was cool, that the skills shortage is a good sign, and that collectively New Zealanders have “locked ourselves into a high interest rate, low wage cul-de-sac.”
Dr Nana is a Wellingtonian born and bred, with his parents immigrating from India and establishing what he refers to as “the iconic kind” of corner dairy in Upper Hutt.
As a school leaver he lacked a definite ambition but “knew that I sort of liked numbers”. This affection for figures grew into a Victoria University economics doctorate and a long, successful career in research and economic modelling, both here and overseas.
His most recent incarnation is as the Chief Economist for BERL (Business and Economic Research Ltd), where he has been full time since 1998. His job is one he loves and one that he says without question he can still see himself doing in ten years time.
Like many native or adopted Wellingtonians, he holds a profound love for the city, he has lived and worked overseas but wonders aloud why you would ever leave.
“I went out for a run on Sunday, and you just wonder, why do you search for any other place, is there any other place in the world like this?”
Green may be the new black but Dr Nana maintains that economists knew about environmental friendliness all along. “Sustainability appears to have appeared on the horizon relatively recently. I think economists have known about sustainability for a long time – we call it investment.”
“If you don’t look after resources then those resources become unproductive. Any business with an unproductive resource goes out of business very fast.”
While economics in itself is a very theoretical art, Dr Nana despairs at economists and policy makers who become lost in the numbers and cannot see the real face of an economy: people, jobs and livelihoods. “It is a matter of taking the textbook away and looking out the window to see what is happening in the real world.
“The textbook for New Zealand is so different. We are a small open economy, very vulnerable to what is happening in the rest of the world. We need to set policies that are relevant to New Zealand.”
He disagrees fundamentally with certain aspects of our economic policy, which has been “set in Biblical stone for the past 20 years” and he is adamant that we have an obsession with controlling inflation. He believes it is a single-mindedness that is hampering our economic growth.
With inflation boundaries being the only economic target set in law in New Zealand, this “gives Inflation a higher status – I think, wrongly.”
He believes the inflation preoccupation is blinding the powers that be to the plight of exporters, and overshadows other equally important issues like the skills shortage, while also ensuring that we continue to live and work with low wages and high interest rates.
He is no longer impressed by the Reserve Bank’s ability to keep inflation within its bounds. “It’s easy to hit that target – they have been hitting it for so long but what about the collateral damage to exporters in the process?”
While he is dedicated, Dr Nana is not all work and no play. His children, aged 10 and 15 give him an opportunity to indulge his love of Cricket.
He speaks fondly of his time spent umpiring and scoring and sees it as an important part of every parents role in the community.
With his youngest about to head off to high school, I asked if perhaps he would become involved with the school in an economical capacity, but wisely he prefers to keep some work life balance.
“There are inevitably the discussions on the side lines at cricket games about the pros and cons of various economic and business issues.” But he says with a kind of weary optimism, “Saturdays and Sundays are supposed to be sacrosanct.”
Dr Nana has an intense pet hate for television news presenters who imply that “the little arrows going up and down” can be classified as either good or bad, as if economics is black and white.
“That is not economics, there is this notion that an arrow going up is good, it’s never as simple as that. What are those indicators doing for the real economy, for the production, the employment?
“To be honest, the fact that the arrow has gone up since yesterday hasn’t made any difference to the productive wealth of the economy.”
It can be slightly unnerving to the casual observer when economic commentators say conflicting things. Gareth Morgan, Rob Oram and Ganesh Nana are all highly qualified to be giving their personal opinions, but if everyone is looking at the same economy why is it that they can be poles apart?
By way of reassurance Dr Nana says the economical indicators we see on the news and in the daily papers tend to be short term and volatile: exchange rates, interest rates, house prices.
He tends to look at an economy from a primary level and when he does publicly comment he is putting those short term indicators into a more long term context. “It’s the concrete stuff whether its trees, meat and sheep, or whether its education services, health services, all those other things.”
“It’s about the short term versus the long term and do we ever get to the long term because here we are, worrying about these short term indicators?”
He sees an urgent need for real business, community and political leadership in New Zealand that are willing to take on the challenges.
We need leaders, he says, that will “tell it as it is and not pull the wool over our eyes, and say that we do these wonderful things and that we will be back in line with Australia next year. We are not going to catch up with Australia for a long time.”
Training and skills are two things he considers absolutely integral to the future of New Zealand business, but not in the way you would think.
“I actually consider a skills shortage a positive because that is a signal that we are continuing to grow, that businesses are searching for skills, and searching to improve their product. The moment we stop talking about a skills shortage is the signal that things are stopping.”
It is worrying to him that talk of the recession seems to have blotted out talk about the brain drain and the lack of availability of highly skilled workers. “We can’t ignore it, we need them.”
When Dr Nana is asked about his own personal – or BERL’s – ability to influence the government, he laughs heartily. “Without a doubt we are on the outer of the received wisdom in terms of the advice that goes forward from the Government from the officials.”
This, despite the fact that a report done by Treasury, which ranked 16 forecast providers on the accuracy of their GDP forecasts from 1996 to 2005, placed BERL as the top performer.
“BERL is on the outer and we openly know and admit that, but it doesn’t stop us saying what we believe to be correct for New Zealand.”
By Katie Foley











