The Peters Factor
Sir Robert Jones predicts that National will prove to be a one-term pony, and that the former member for Tauranga will once again stalk the boards of parliament.
Political journalists are given to protesting that the public don’t understand the ghastly MMP system. Probably that was true for its first decade, but I doubt if it holds water now.
What can be said however is that it sometimes seems the political journalists themselves don’t really understand it.
I say that in the context of their current dismissive attitude towards the Opposition. Clearly they believe that a change of government in 2011 is inconceivable; that as all past National governments have won three, and with the Holyoake government, four, successive elections, then Labour must first go through the standard new Opposition pains of leadership changes and endure several losing elections before returning to the Treasury benches.
Well I’ll go out on a limb now and predict, solely thanks to MMP, and in particular Winston Peters, a Labour-led administration after the 2011 election. But with two provisos. They are that Phil Goff is still Labour leader and Winston Peters puts his hand up again, as I believe he will.
Here’s why I say National will be a one-term government.
First, with one exception, the four previous National governments since 1949 were all under the first-past-the-post system. The exception was the Bolger government, which only narrowly scraped back in 1993 and technically lost the first MMP election in 1996. By that I refer to Winston Peters, who that year adamantly pledged not to go into coalition with National. Had he stuck to his election undertaking, then Labour would have been back then and not three years later in 1999.
Second, notwithstanding the extended new government honeymoon currently being enjoyed by National in the polls, both history and common sense says that polling gap will narrow by the next election. The near miss by Bolger in 1993 was not peculiar, as one has to go back nearly half a century to 1963 for a new National government not to just scrape home at their first new government
election.
Third, Labour have a sound leader in Phil Goff, whose pleasant demeanour and general soundness makes him almost a clone of John Key – but with the advantage that he speaks properly. Key’s mangling of the language is bound to become an increasing source of ridicule, which is always unhelpful. Goff’s profile will be much larger in the public’s mind in two years’ time, through familiarity, and he will seem a perfectly creditable leader in the eyes of voters.
Fourth, by 2010 the recession will really be biting, compounded by National’s traditional tight fiscal policies. The government, whether fairly or not, will suffer the electorate’s backlash. As well, in hard times voters always look leftward for salvation. But even if National surpass Labour in votes and seats on election night, that will count for little when it comes to forming a government.
Finally, I come to the all-important Peters factor. Despite a relentless six-month-long media hammering, for the like of which there’s no precedent and which Winston brought entirely on himself, he damn near got up to the all-important five per cent mark in 2008.
Winston will be back. Knowing his modus operandi he will time it to perfection, perhaps commencing late in 2010.
Scathing editorials and cartoons will count for nothing, few potential New Zealand First voters being likely newspaper readers. Remember Churchill’s remark that the case against democracy is best illustrated by five minutes talking to the average voter. Winston’s name on the ballot would still command one per cent if he were dead. Anyway, it’s television which counts and television will love the ‘Resurrection of Winston’ story. And as we all know, when it comes to television Winston excels.
I’m am almost certain Mr Peters will get back in ! I hope so as well because personally I know who I would rather see between him and Mr Hide. Mr Hide needs to retire.
The statement earlier about the Greens losing some edge is correct in my opinion, losing Their fabulous leader and Sud Bradford will I think prove to be detremental to the party. I think they need to lose Russel, I notice Sue Kedgley is becoming more familar to the public and Kevin Hague is trying to get out there to be seen ! Meteri Turei is actually quite on to it and funny in my opion after seeing her speak publicly and on a few shows, I think she will become a fmilar face to the public and I think that the public will love her however I think the only great players they have left are herself and Kedgley. Mind you of you get rid of Russel who replaces him ?? Exactly no one !
Bob you are completely right ! Mr Key simply can not speak english, I watched him when her was campaigning and then when her was first PM. My friend and I both agreed that give him a few months and he will be speaking properely with vocal training or speech therapy, however no such thing if anything he is getting worse ! It is embarrasing that the leader of our country can not speak properly !
However as a Prime Minister I think he is doing a good job and a few memebrs of his team let him down. I do not think he is as good as Helen was as a leader but he is definitely working hard and doing good things. The other thing is that I do not see Phill Goff as ever being the Prime Minister, I think Mr Goff knows that as well ! He simply just reminds me of a Don Brash, as boring ! No chrisma, if they were smart they would have Andrew Little in there now getting him ready ! Phil Goff is just passing time for the party, I would rather see Anette King, or Lianne Dalziel led the party, hand it back to the woman, the blokes there are a bit below average at the moment! Thank god Judith Tizard is gone, now we just need to get rif of Mallard and Carter !
Could be, but you have assumed that the Greens will still be there – without Jeanette and Sue they don’t look nearly as attractive as an alternative for the party vote. The Maori Party could be punished for going with National, there is some ill feeling there as well.
Yes Bob but the elephant in the room is the Maori Party. Winston will make a comeback but the Maori Party will continue to fill the kingmaker role once more. The rise and rise of Shane Jones will bring the Maori Party closer to Labour and the Peter’s factor will only be to guarantee the end of ACT.
Why is such credence given to the political utterences of a man who’s party never won a seat, and who’s practices’ have been dubious to say the least?
And with Key’s disappointing and watery performance to date, I’m hoping that 2011 does see a change of government, even with Winston. I’d vote for Phil Goff, or the Nats with Bill English as the leader. Key is far too timid, in my view.
What fascinates me is the medias dismissive comments made against NZ First. ( I have never voted for them. After all they only represent 4-5% of the population. But wait. ACT represents only about 2-3% of the population.
And Sir Robert has been bluntly and correctly prophetic before.